The eternal debate, quantified. Compare a diversified ETF strategy against stock picking factoring in fees, volatility, and the probability of beating the market.
Initial investment $10,000
$
Monthly contribution $300
$
ETF annual return 8%
0%S&P 500 avg ~8-10%15%
Stock picker return 10%
0%Your expected pick return25%
ETF fee (TER) 0.07%
Stock trading costs 0.5%
Stock picker volatility 25%
5%S&P 500 ~15%, single stock ~40%+60%
Number of simulations
Time horizon
ETF vs Stock Picker Distribution of outcomes
ETF (median)
Stock (median)
ETF range (10-90%)
Stock range (10-90%)
? Verdict
? Simulation statistics
Metric
ETF
Stock Picker
Winner
Methodology
Monte Carlo simulation with log-normal returns. ETF returns follow: ln(1+r) ~ N(ln(1+ĩ) - sē/2, sē) where ĩ = expected return - TER, s = 15% (market volatility). Stock picker returns use the same model with user-specified return (minus trading costs) and volatility. Results show median, 10th percentile (worst-case), and 90th percentile (best-case) outcomes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.